77% — 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Leader: Chong Won-oh at 77% · Polymarket 77% · 2 contracts · $362K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:02:12 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing Chong Won-oh as a strong favorite to win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, with an 88% implied probability compared to incumbent Oh Se-hoon at 13%. Seoul's mayoral race carries significance as the capital's highest local office and typically reflects broader political sentiment in South Korea. The current probability reflects Chong's polling strength and factional positioning within Korean politics, though the election remains contested rather than predetermined. Market pricing would shift if major scandals surfaced, if polling data showed substantial movement, or if factional realignments within parties altered candidate viability. The election is scheduled for June 2026, providing the definitive resolution point; intervening months may see campaign events, debate performance, or policy announcements that shift market expectations meaningfully.

Key factors:
- Recent Seoul polling data showing Chong Won-oh's lead margin and trend direction relative to Oh Se-hoon
- Campaign events, debate performance, or scandal emergence between now and June 2026 that could shift voter preferences
- Factional support within the ruling and opposition parties, as endorsements and resource allocation influence candidate viability
- 24-hour trading volume of $26,666 across both contracts indicates moderate liquidity and reasonable price discovery
- June 2026 election date as the hard resolution point for contract settlement

Contracts:
- 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner: Chong Won-oh — 77¢ Polymarket $165K (weight 46%)
- 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner: Oh Se-hoon — 24¢ Polymarket $197K (weight 54%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-05T07:20:12.382Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/seoul-mayoral-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20Seoul%20Mayoral%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev