94% — Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026
Leader: Above 8% at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 7 contracts · $15K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:32:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects the market's expectation that Sweetgreen will achieve above 8% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026, with declining probability as the margin threshold increases. The current 77% probability on the 8% threshold reflects recent operational improvements and cost management, though margins remain sensitive to labor costs, commodity inflation, and same-store sales growth. The resolution depends on Q2 2026 earnings, typically reported 4–6 weeks after quarter-end in early August 2026. The probability structure shows traders expect Sweetgreen more likely to clear 8–10% margins than higher thresholds, suggesting modest but fragile profitability. Actual margin performance will be determined by traffic trends, pricing power, and overhead absorption across its restaurant base.

Key factors:
- Same-store sales growth rate in Q2 2026 relative to prior year and guidance provided by management
- Labor cost trends, minimum wage changes in key markets, and staffing efficiency improvements or deterioration
- Commodity and supply chain costs, particularly for produce and proteins, in Q2 2026 versus Q1
- Restaurant-level operating expenses excluding food and labor as a percentage of sales, indicating overhead management
- Q2 2026 earnings release date and actual reported restaurant-level margin figures versus the 8%, 10%, 12%, 14%, and 16% thresholds

Contracts:
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 8% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 8% — 94¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 17%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 10% — 86¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 14%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 12% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 12% — 79¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 22%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 14% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 14% — 69¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 25%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 16% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 16% — 27¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 22%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 18% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 18% — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 20% restaurant-level profit margin in Q2 2026?: Above 20% — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.479Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sg
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sweetgreen%20Inc.%20report%20Above%2010%25%20restaurant-level%20profit%20margin%20in%20Q2%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev