92% — Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 11.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026
Leader: Above 9% at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 13 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Prediction markets assess an 94% likelihood that Sweetgreen will achieve above 11.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026. This metric matters because it indicates operational efficiency and unit economics — critical for quick-service restaurant chains. The high probability reflects confidence in Sweetgreen's margin expansion, though markets show less certainty about reaching 12% (74¢) or higher thresholds. Resolution depends on Sweetgreen's fiscal 2026 earnings report, expected in early 2027, which will disclose audited restaurant-level margins. Key drivers include labor cost management amid ongoing wage pressures, menu pricing power relative to input costs, and whether company-wide initiatives to improve throughput and reduce waste materialize. Lower contract prices at 12.5% and 13% suggest marginal diminishing confidence; the 3¢ price on 15.5% indicates the market views sustained high-margin performance as unlikely.

Key factors:
- Sweetgreen's actual reported restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026 will be the sole determinant; outcomes are binary once audited results publish in early 2027
- Labor costs as a percentage of revenue will be pivotal, given ongoing minimum wage increases and competition for fast-casual restaurant staff
- Menu price increases relative to commodity and food costs will determine whether Sweetgreen maintains or expands margins versus fiscal 2025 baseline
- Company execution on operational efficiency improvements (throughput, labor scheduling, waste reduction) will affect whether margins reach 12%+ thresholds
- The 58% average price across Kalshi contracts reflects meaningful uncertainty despite the 94% headline probability for the 11.5% threshold

Contracts:
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 9% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 9% — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 9.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 9.5% — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 10% — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 10.5% — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 11% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 11% — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 11.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 11.5% — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 12% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 12% — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 13% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 13% — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.281Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sga
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sweetgreen%20Inc.%20report%20Above%2011.5%25%20restaurant-level%20profit%20margin%20in%20fiscal%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev