74% — How many consecutive regular season games will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score 20+ points
Leader: 145+ consecutive games at 74% · Kalshi 74% · 7 contracts · $4 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 08:02:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing the probability that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will score 20 or more points in a consecutive streak of regular season games at 14%, making it a long-shot outcome. The current probability reflects skepticism about SGA sustaining such a streak, likely driven by two factors: first, scoring 20+ in every consecutive game is exceptionally difficult even for elite players, and second, injuries, rest days, or natural offensive variation typically interrupt extended scoring streaks. The primary catalyst that would shift this probability is the start and progression of the 2026-27 NBA regular season, where real performance data will either validate or refute the streak as it develops. The exact contract definition—which specific streak length is being wagered on—critically determines whether this reflects a realistic assessment or underpricing of SGA's offensive consistency.

Key factors:
- The specific streak length threshold (10, 20, 30+ games) is determinative; longer streaks are exponentially less likely than shorter ones
- SGA's historical scoring consistency and injury history during the 2025-26 season; any offseason injuries or recovery issues would lower streak probability
- NBA schedule factors including back-to-backs, rest management by coaching staff, and games against elite defenses that statistically reduce scoring output
- Betting volume and contract structure; the 6% gap between top contract (14%) and runner-up (8%) suggests meaningful disagreement on streak likelihood
- The 2026-27 regular season start date and SGA's opening performance will provide immediate empirical data to resolve early uncertainty

Contracts:
- How many consecutive regular season games will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score 20+ points?: 145+ consecutive games — 74¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 50%)
- How many consecutive regular season games will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score 20+ points?: 155+ consecutive games — 62¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 25%)
- How many consecutive regular season games will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score 20+ points?: 165+ consecutive games — 43¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 25%)
- How many consecutive regular season games will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score 20+ points?: 175+ consecutive games — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many consecutive regular season games will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score 20+ points?: 185+ consecutive games — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many consecutive regular season games will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score 20+ points?: 195+ consecutive games — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many consecutive regular season games will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score 20+ points?: 200+ consecutive games — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:51.025Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "74% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/shai20ptrec
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20consecutive%20regular%20season%20games%20will%20Shai%20Gilgeous-Alexander%20score%2020%2B%20points
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev