95% — Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 113
Leader: Above 103 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 12 contracts · $259 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates whether Shake Shack's foot traffic for August 2026 will exceed 113 million visits. Currently priced at 51%, it suggests roughly even odds, with market participants closely bunched between 103-107 million visits across the contract ladder. The narrow spread between contracts indicates uncertainty about the baseline traffic level rather than high confidence in any direction. Key drivers include seasonal dining patterns—August typically shows summer dining strength—and Shake Shack's comparable store traffic trends. The contract clustering around 50 cents across multiple thresholds suggests the market views August 2026 traffic within a relatively tight band. Resolution depends on Shake Shack's actual reported foot traffic data for August 2026, which would typically be disclosed in their quarterly earnings or investor reports. The zero trading volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent market activity, so these prices reflect accumulated expectations rather than fresh information.

Key factors:
- Shake Shack's year-over-year foot traffic growth or decline through 2026
- Seasonal summer dining patterns and their impact on August traffic specifically
- Store count and comparable-store sales trends leading into August 2026
- Consumer spending and restaurant traffic broadly during summer 2026
- Timing and content of August 2026 foot traffic disclosure in earnings reports

Contracts:
- Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 103 ?: Above 103 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 104 ?: Above 104 — 91¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 7%)
- Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 105 ?: Above 105 — 46¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 2%)
- Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 106 ?: Above 106 — 26¢ Kalshi $205 (weight 79%)
- Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 107 ?: Above 107 — 16¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 2%)
- Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 109 ?: Above 109 — 11¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 2%)
- Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 108 ?: Above 108 — 11¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 2%)
- Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 110 ?: Above 110 — 10¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 2%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:48.902Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/shakft
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Shake%20Shack%20Monthly%20Foot%20Traffic%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20113
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev