56% — Sheffield United FC vs. Preston North End FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
Kalshi 56% · 1 contracts · $273 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-30 04:30:09 UTC

Why this matters:
This market indicates a 37% probability that the Sheffield United vs. Preston North End match on 2026-05-15 will produce more than 4.5 total goals. At this probability level, the market is pricing the outcome as unlikely but plausible. The current pricing reflects typical offensive output for these Championship-level clubs and typical match conditions. Factors affecting this probability include recent goal-scoring trends for both teams, defensive performance statistics, head-to-head historical patterns, and any lineup or injury news affecting key offensive or defensive players. The resolution is straightforward: the final whistle will definitively show whether combined goals exceeded four. Betting volume and contract pricing suggest moderate but not exceptional confidence in either direction, with the under-4.5 outcome favored at present odds. Upcoming team news or betting flow could shift this probability meaningfully before match kickoff.

Key factors:
- Sheffield United and Preston North End's combined average goals per match in their most recent 10 games
- Injury status of key offensive players for both teams leading into match day
- Historical head-to-head goal totals in direct matchups between these clubs over the past two seasons
- Weather conditions, field conditions, or tactical adjustments announced in pre-match coverage
- Closing odds and volume movement on related betting markets in the 24-48 hours before kickoff

Contracts:
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: United States — 56¢ Kalshi $273 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-30T04:20:49.731Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sheffield-united-fc-vs-preston-north-end-fc-more-markets-ou
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Sheffield%20United%20FC%20vs.%20Preston%20North%20End%20FC%20-%20More%20Markets%3A%20O%2FU%204.5
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev