33% — Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?: 20+
Kalshi 33% · 5 contracts · $20 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 10:50:51 UTC

Contracts:
- Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?: Before 2028 — 52¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 100%)
- Will União Progressista hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections?: União Progressista — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada?: Yes — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will PL hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections?: PL — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections?: PSD — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T10:20:20.097Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ships-transit-strait-of-hormuz-any-day-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20__%20ships%20transit%20the%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20on%20any%20day%20by%20end%20of%20April%3F%3A%2020%2B
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev