27% — Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?: 20+
Kalshi 27% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 07:01:58 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether at least 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by the end of April 2026. The 33% probability reflects uncertainty about shipping volumes through one of the world's most critical chokepoints. Key drivers include global crude oil demand, geopolitical tensions affecting the region, and seasonal shipping patterns. Daily transit data is published by maritime tracking services, providing a clear resolution metric. Higher oil prices and economic growth would increase tanker traffic, while regional conflicts or sanctions could disrupt normal patterns. The contract essentially bets on whether peak daily throughput will reach a specific threshold within the specified window.

Key factors:
- Average daily Hormuz transits typically range 20-25 vessels; the threshold is achievable under normal conditions but not guaranteed on any given day
- Regional geopolitical stability directly affects shipping confidence; escalation or de-escalation would materially shift transit patterns
- Seasonal demand cycles peak in certain quarters; April positioning relative to global demand cycles influences probability
- Published AIS and maritime authority data will definitively resolve the contract; no ambiguity in measurement methodology
- Oil price levels and economic growth forecasts through Q2 2026 correlate with tanker utilization rates and vessel routing decisions

Contracts:
- Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?: Before 2028 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will União Progressista hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections?: União Progressista — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Democrats win the governorships of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, AND Nevada?: Yes — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will PL hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections?: PL — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections?: PSD — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.699Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ships-transit-strait-of-hormuz-any-day-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20__%20ships%20transit%20the%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20on%20any%20day%20by%20end%20of%20April%3F%3A%2020%2B
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev