17% — Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+
Leader: 20+ at 17% · Polymarket 17% · 3 contracts · $106K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 22:21:48 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract measures the probability that at least 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on a single day between now and May 31, 2026. At 52%, the market currently views this as slightly more likely than not, though the 80+ ship threshold trades at just 3 cents, suggesting very low confidence in exceptionally high traffic. The Strait handles roughly 20-25% of global seaborne petroleum trade, and daily transit volumes fluctuate based on geopolitical tensions, weather, maintenance schedules, and regional conflict activity. The resolution depends entirely on actual ship counts recorded by maritime tracking services on any given day through month-end. Factors pushing probabilities up or down include escalations or de-escalations in regional tensions, shipping disruptions, or changes in global oil demand that affect routing decisions.

Key factors:
- Historical baseline: average daily transits through Hormuz typically range 20-25 ships; market is pricing 20+ as slightly favored
- Regional geopolitical risk: any military incidents, sanctions enforcement, or threat escalation in the Persian Gulf would increase transit uncertainty and volatility
- Oil market dynamics: crude prices and demand directly influence shipping patterns; current price environment affects routing decisions and congestion
- Weather and infrastructure: seasonal conditions, port maintenance, or chokepoint blockages would reduce transits and shift probabilities toward lower thresholds
- Resolution mechanism: daily counts depend on UKMTO, IHS Markit, or similar maritime tracking data; definition of 'transit' and counting methodology are critical

Contracts:
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 20+ — 17¢ Polymarket $27K (weight 26%)
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 40+ — 9¢ Polymarket $36K (weight 34%)
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 60+ — 4¢ Polymarket $43K (weight 40%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T22:20:13.817Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ships-transit-strait-of-hormuz-any-day-may-31
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20__%20ships%20transit%20the%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20on%20any%20day%20by%20May%2031%3F%3A%2080%2B
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev