88% — Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $100
Leader: $60 at 88% · Polymarket 88% · 11 contracts · $802 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract predicts silver will close above $100 per ounce at the end of June 2026, with the leading market participant pricing this outcome at 81% probability. Silver prices are influenced by macroeconomic conditions, real interest rates, and industrial demand, alongside safe-haven flows during periods of market uncertainty. The June expiration date means resolution depends on spot silver prices in roughly four weeks, making current economic data and Federal Reserve signals key determinants. A significant move in US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, or major industrial demand shifts could shift probabilities materially. The contract's high confidence level reflects market belief that silver is unlikely to fall below $100, though the 19% tail probability suggests meaningful downside risk is still priced in by some participants.

Key factors:
- Current spot silver price relative to $100 strike and historical volatility patterns over the past 30 days
- US real interest rates and 10-year Treasury yields, which typically move inversely to precious metals valuations
- Industrial demand indicators and manufacturing PMI data releases, particularly from China and the eurozone
- Safe-haven demand signals derived from equity market volatility indices and geopolitical risk events
- Volume concentration: the leading contract holds 81% while runner-up is at 75%, indicating moderate consensus rather than unanimous agreement

Contracts:
- Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $60 — 88¢ Polymarket $1 (weight 0%)
- Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $65 — 85¢ Polymarket $44 (weight 5%)
- Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $70 — 80¢ Polymarket $58 (weight 7%)
- Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $75 — 64¢ Polymarket $151 (weight 19%)
- Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $80 — 56¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $85 — 41¢ Polymarket $202 (weight 25%)
- Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $90 — 40¢ Polymarket $228 (weight 28%)
- Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?: $95 — 30¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/silver-si-above-june
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Silver%20(SI)%20above%20___%20end%20of%20June%3F%3A%20%24100
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev