60% — Will the silver close price be above $57.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Kalshi 72% · 19 contracts · $927 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-05 12:05:37 UTC

Why this matters:
Traders assess an 89% probability that silver will close above $54.99 per troy ounce on May 29, 2026 at 5 PM EDT. This elevated confidence reflects recent price momentum, with the contract ladder showing traders expect silver to remain in the mid-to-upper $50s range. The market assigns meaningful but minority probability (~47%) to silver reaching $73.99, suggesting upside is possible but not the consensus case. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions affecting industrial demand, broader precious metals market sentiment, and Federal Reserve policy direction through May. The resolution depends entirely on the spot price fixing at the specified time, with no intermediate data releases or scheduled events reshaping the outlook between now and late May. Traders are pricing in relative stability near current levels rather than significant directional moves in either direction.

Key factors:
- Contract prices decline steeply moving upward (89¢ at $54.99 vs. 47¢ at $73.99), indicating market consensus for a narrow range rather than extreme moves
- The 89% probability at $54.99 suggests traders expect silver to remain within striking distance of current prices through May 29
- Technical support and resistance levels, along with USD strength dynamics, will materially influence whether silver stays above mid-$50s thresholds
- Industrial demand forecasts for May 2026 and any shifts in Fed interest rate expectations could push markets toward either extreme of the contract ladder
- Historical silver volatility and correlation with equity markets represent tail-risk scenarios that could move the outcome away from the implied 89% baseline

Contracts:
- Will the silver close price be above 73.99  USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $73.99 — 49¢ Kalshi $773 (weight 23%)
- Will the silver close price be above 71.99  USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $71.99 — 55¢ Kalshi $85 (weight 15%)
- Will the silver close price be above 72.99  USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $72.99 — 51¢ Kalshi $54 (weight 14%)
- Will the silver close price be above 80.99  USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $80.99 — 19¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 8%)
- Will the silver close price be above 66.99  USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $66.99 — 75¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 7%)
- Will the silver close price be above 54.99  USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $54.99 — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 2%)
- Will the silver close price be above 55.99  USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $55.99 — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 2%)
- Will the silver close price be above 56.99  USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $56.99 — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 2%)
- ... and 11 more

Cite as: "60% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/silvermon
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20silver%20close%20price%20be%20above%20%2457.99%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev