24% — Will Ali Truwit be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach Kalshi 24% · 11 contracts · $685 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:02 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 42% chance that Ali Truwit will appear as a runway model at Sports Illustrated's Swimsuit fashion show during Miami Swim Week 2026, scheduled for the W South Beach. The probability reflects uncertainty about casting decisions that typically finalize closer to the event date. Key factors include Truwit's prior modeling experience with SI, her social media following and public profile, and how the publication structures its model roster this year. Comparable markets show varied probabilities for other potential models, with some names trading higher (Brittany Mahomes at 50%) and others lower (Sophie Cunningham at 3%), suggesting individual casting decisions remain unpredictable. The uncertainty should largely resolve once SI Swimsuit officially announces the runway lineup, which typically occurs in the weeks immediately preceding the show. Key factors: - Ali Truwit's history of appearing in Sports Illustrated content and prior runway show participation - The timing of official model announcements by SI Swimsuit, which typically occur 2-4 weeks before the scheduled event - Comparable model probabilities on the same market suggest casting remains genuinely uncertain rather than predetermined - Truwit's current media presence and brand partnerships relative to competing models in the SI ecosystem - Whether Swim Week 2026 lineup prioritizes returning established models versus featuring new talent Contracts: - Will Ashtin Earle be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach?: Ashtin Earle — 41¢ Kalshi $237 (weight 35%) - Will Ali Truwit be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach?: Ali Truwit — 29¢ Kalshi $90 (weight 13%) - Will Jordan Chiles be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach?: Jordan Chiles — 12¢ Kalshi $82 (weight 12%) - Will Olandria Lashae Carthen be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach?: Olandria Lashae Carthen — 25¢ Kalshi $48 (weight 7%) - Will Nina Agdal be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach?: Nina Agdal — 42¢ Kalshi $46 (weight 7%) - Will Hilary Duff be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach?: Hilary Duff — 4¢ Kalshi $45 (weight 7%) - Will Brittany Mahomes be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach?: Brittany Mahomes — 5¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 5%) - Will Jilly Anais be a Runway Model at The SI Swimsuit Runway Show during Swim Week 2026 in Miami at the W South Beach?: Jilly Anais — 16¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 5%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.576Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/simiami Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ali%20Truwit%20be%20a%20Runway%20Model%20at%20The%20SI%20Swimsuit%20Runway%20Show%20during%20Swim%20Week%202026%20in%20Miami%20at%20the%20W%20South%20Beach Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev