61% — Singapore vs. China PR
Leader: China PR at 61% · Polymarket 61% · 3 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:01:51 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Singapore vs. China PR: China PR — 61¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 25%)
- Singapore vs. China PR: Draw (Singapore vs. China PR) — 24¢ Polymarket $553 (weight 9%)
- Singapore vs. China PR: Singapore — 18¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 66%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-06T13:20:12.581Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "61% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/singapore-vs-china-pr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Singapore%20vs.%20China%20PR
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev