14% — Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Score
Leader: Exact Score: Any Other Score at 14% · Polymarket 14% · 13 contracts · $410 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:02:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract assigns a 23% probability to a specific final score in a Singapore vs. China PR football match, with the most heavily weighted outcome being a 1-0 result. The probability reflects genuine uncertainty about the match outcome rather than a balanced assessment—market participants are pricing distinct score lines individually across 17 separate contracts, meaning no single outcome commands majority confidence. The current leader at 23% suggests bettors see moderate but not dominant odds for that particular scoreline. Key drivers include team form, defensive strength, expected goal creation, and typical scoring patterns in similar matchups. Match resolution will occur on the scheduled game date, at which point all competing score predictions will be definitively settled against the actual result. Until then, probability shifts would likely reflect updated team news, injury reports, or tactical information that alters expectations about scoring likelihood.

Key factors:
- The leading contract (23%) represents one of 17 discrete outcome buckets; no single score commands majority market confidence, indicating genuine forecast dispersion
- Low contract volumes ($60 24h across top contracts) and penny-level pricing suggest thin liquidity and potentially volatile probability swings from small position changes
- The second-place outcome stands 11 percentage points lower (12%), indicating significant disagreement among participants about which score is most likely
- Typical defensive/offensive capabilities of both teams determine realistic score ranges; outcomes clustered at low totals (0-0, 1-0, 2-1) suggest expectation of a closely contested, low-scoring match
- Match resolution is binary and final—the actual game result will immediately settle all 17 contracts, leaving no ambiguity about winners and losers

Contracts:
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Score: Exact Score: Any Other Score — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Score: Exact Score: 0-1 — 13¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Score: Exact Score: 0-2 — 12¢ Polymarket $35 (weight 8%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Score: Exact Score: 1-1 — 12¢ Polymarket $33 (weight 8%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Score: Exact Score: 1-2 — 11¢ Polymarket $47 (weight 12%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Score: Exact Score: 0-3 — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Score: Exact Score: 1-3 — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Score: Exact Score: 0-0 — 5¢ Polymarket $115 (weight 28%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-06T13:20:12.581Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/singapore-vs-china-pr-exact-score
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Singapore%20vs.%20China%20PR%20-%20Exact%20Score
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev