95% — Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets
Leader: O/U 0.5 at 95% · Polymarket 95% · 10 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:02:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 92% probability that Singapore and China will establish additional public relations or diplomatic markets within a specified timeframe. The high probability suggests traders view such an arrangement as highly likely, though the contract structure (with spreads at 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, and 5.5 outcomes) indicates uncertainty about the scale or quantity of new markets. Key drivers include current bilateral trade relationships, regulatory alignment between the two economies, and historical precedent for such arrangements. The 81% probability on the 1.5 outcome suggests traders expect between one and two additional markets as a baseline scenario. Resolution will depend on official announcements or regulatory filings from either Singapore's or China's relevant authorities that formally establish new market mechanisms or trading relationships.

Key factors:
- The O/U 0.5 contract at 92% implies traders assign very high confidence to at least one new market being announced or established
- The 39¢ price on China PR (-1.5) indicates material disagreement about whether negative outcomes are priced in
- Trading volume is minimal across most contracts ($3 in 24h volume for the China PR spread), suggesting limited market participation and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- The spread between the O/U 0.5 (92¢) and O/U 1.5 (81¢) contracts reveals a 11-percentage-point probability mass assigned to the second market outcome specifically
- No scheduled announcement or regulatory decision date appears encoded in current prices, suggesting either near-term resolution expected or information asymmetry among traders

Contracts:
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: O/U 0.5 — 95¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 44%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: O/U 1.5 — 76¢ Polymarket $113 (weight 4%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: O/U 2.5 — 52¢ Polymarket $399 (weight 16%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: Both Teams to Score — 50¢ Polymarket $29 (weight 1%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: China PR (-1.5) — 34¢ Polymarket $135 (weight 5%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: O/U 3.5 — 29¢ Polymarket $100 (weight 4%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: China PR (-2.5) — 16¢ Polymarket $294 (weight 11%)
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Markets: O/U 4.5 — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-06T13:20:12.581Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/singapore-vs-china-pr-more-markets
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev