93% — Will Snap Inc. report Above 480 million global daily active users in Q2 2026 Leader: Above 480 million at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 6 contracts · $38 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 14:03:17 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets currently assess an 88% probability that Snap will report at least 480 million global daily active users in Q2 2026. This reflects confidence in Snap's recent user growth trajectory, though the tighter clustering of contracts at 484M (68%) and 488M (41%) suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether growth extends beyond the 480M threshold. The primary driver of the high probability is Snap's consistent user expansion over recent quarters; downside risks include potential slowdown in mature markets or shifts in user engagement. Resolution occurs when Snap releases its Q2 2026 earnings report, typically in late July or early August, which will provide official DAU figures. The gap between the 88% and 68% contracts (a 20-percentage-point spread) indicates the market sees 480M as achievable but 484M as materially less certain. Key factors: - Snap's DAU growth rate in recent quarters and whether it has maintained or accelerated momentum through Q2 2026 - Geographic distribution of user growth, particularly whether gains in emerging markets offset any deceleration in North America and Europe - Competitive pressure from TikTok, Instagram Reels, and other platforms, and their impact on Snap's ability to retain and grow its user base - The specific DAU figure Snap reports in Q2 2026 earnings (official resolution date typically late July/early August), which determines all contract payouts - Historical variance between analyst estimates and Snap's actual reported DAU to calibrate forecast reliability Contracts: - Will Snap Inc. report Above 480 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 480 million — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Snap Inc. report Above 484 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 484 million — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Snap Inc. report Above 488 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 488 million — 61¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 68%) - Will Snap Inc. report Above 492 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 492 million — 30¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 32%) - Will Snap Inc. report Above 496 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 496 million — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Snap Inc. report Above 500 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 500 million — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:51.201Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/snap Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Snap%20Inc.%20report%20Above%20480%20million%20global%20daily%20active%20users%20in%20Q2%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev