37% — Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL Leader: Tina Fey at 37% · Kalshi 37% · 6 contracts · $118 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 02:43:01 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets assign a 35% probability to Steve Higgins being named as Lorne Michaels' successor at Saturday Night Live, reflecting traders' assessment of whether the current head writer will be promoted to the role. This probability is driven by Higgins' deep institutional knowledge and tenure at the show, but tempered by uncertainty about whether NBC and Studio 8H will pursue an external candidate or an alternative internal figure like Tina Fey (33% probability). The outcome depends on whether SNL's executive leadership seeks continuity versus a fresh creative direction. Resolution occurs when NBC officially announces Michaels' replacement, likely sometime after the show's seasonal renewal decisions are finalized. Current trading volume on Higgins' contract is minimal, suggesting limited recent conviction shifts among traders. Key factors: - Steve Higgins has been head writer since 2013 and represents the continuity-focused path, while Tina Fey is nearly tied at 33%, indicating material uncertainty about whether NBC prefers external star power or internal promotion - No official announcement has been made regarding Michaels' retirement timeline or succession plan; markets are pricing speculative odds ahead of any formal company guidance - Trading volume across all five named candidates is extremely low (only Tina Fey shows $24 in 24-hour volume), suggesting this remains a niche prediction market with limited liquidity and potential for sharp repricing upon news - The four other candidates collectively price at approximately 32%, distributed among Bill Hader (7¢), Colin Jost (13¢), Kenan Thompson (6¢), and others, showing meaningful tail risk to the top two favorites - Michaels' successor selection will likely hinge on whether SNL emphasizes institutional continuity versus celebrity draw and outside perspective Contracts: - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Tina Fey — 37¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 30%) - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Steve Higgins — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Colin Jost — 16¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 70%) - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Seth Meyers — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Bill Hader — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Kenan Thompson — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T02:20:49.931Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/snl Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20announced%20as%20Lorne%20Michaels'%20successor%20at%20SNL Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev