35% — Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL Leader: Tina Fey at 35% · Kalshi 35% · 7 contracts · $16 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:30 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability indicates that markets currently assess a 43% chance that a specific individual will be formally announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at Saturday Night Live. The succession question reflects uncertainty about NBC's leadership transition at one of television's longest-running shows. The probability level could shift based on announcements from NBC leadership, public statements from potential candidates, or reporting about internal decision timelines. A formal announcement from NBC or confirmation of Michaels' retirement timeline would likely serve as the primary catalyst for resolution. Market participants appear divided on the likely successor, with the leading candidate at 43% and the runner-up at 26%, suggesting meaningful disagreement about the outcome rather than consensus. Key factors: - Lorne Michaels has not publicly announced a retirement date or timeline for succession at SNL - The identity of the leading candidate at 43% probability has not been confirmed through market data provided here - NBC has not made an official statement designating an heir apparent or succession plan for the show's leadership - SNL's production and format decisions influence both the pool of potential successors and market participants' assessments of each candidate's viability - Historical precedent shows SNL leadership transitions are typically announced well before implementation, creating multiple opportunities for new information to change market odds Contracts: - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Tina Fey — 35¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 19%) - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Steve Higgins — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Colin Jost — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Seth Meyers — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Bill Hader — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Kenan Thompson — 6¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 81%) - Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL?: Judd Apatow — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.318Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/snl Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20announced%20as%20Lorne%20Michaels'%20successor%20at%20SNL Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev