84% — São Paulo Governor Election Winner
Leader: Tarcísio de Freitas at 84% · Polymarket 84% · 3 contracts · $74 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-30 00:16:19 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the current market expectation that Tarcísio de Freitas will win the São Paulo gubernatorial race, with an 84% chance priced in. The high confidence in de Freitas is likely driven by his incumbent status, polling leads, and political alignment with the national administration. The 9% for Fernando Haddad and 6% for Kim Kataguiri suggest meaningful but smaller probabilities for alternative outcomes. The probability would shift materially on new polling data, campaign developments, or scandals affecting any candidate. The election is scheduled for late 2026, with campaign dynamics and voter sentiment potentially moving markets significantly in coming months as the race intensifies.

Key factors:
- Tarcísio de Freitas holds incumbent advantage as current São Paulo Governor, a structural factor typically associated with higher re-election odds
- Recent polling data on voting intention in São Paulo state and approval ratings for the current governor would directly validate or contradict the 84% pricing
- Campaign finance disclosures and spending levels by competing candidates, which affect media reach and organizational capacity in a large state
- Any major corruption allegations, resignations, or health issues affecting de Freitas or primary challengers would likely trigger sharp price movements
- Election date is scheduled for October 2026, meaning uncertainty should compress significantly in Q3-Q4 as voting approaches and final polling emerges

Contracts:
- São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Tarcísio de Freitas — 84¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 7%)
- São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Kim Kataguiri — 8¢ Polymarket $69 (weight 93%)
- São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Fernando Haddad — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:11.468Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/so-paulo-governor-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=S%C3%A3o%20Paulo%20Governor%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev