8% — Will Social Security be cut?
Kalshi 8% · 2 contracts · $11 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:42:27 UTC

Contracts:
- Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027 — 13¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 100%)
- US bans social media for children before 2027?: Yes — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:10.770Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/social-security-cuts
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Social%20Security%20be%20cut%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev