33% — Will SOFR hit __ in April?: ↑3.74% Kalshi 31% · Polymarket 33% · 11 contracts · $36K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-17 17:02:30 UTC Why this matters: This prediction reflects a 33% probability that SOFR (the Secured Overnight Financing Rate) will reach a specific threshold in April 2026. The forecast is based on expectations about Federal Reserve monetary policy and economic conditions over the coming months. SOFR could rise if inflation remains elevated, forcing the Fed to maintain higher rates longer than currently expected, or fall if the economy weakens and the Fed cuts rates. Conversely, a stronger economic backdrop or faster disinflation could push rates lower. The key uncertainty centers on the Fed's policy decisions in late 2025 and early 2026—particularly whether rate cuts continue as currently anticipated or pause due to inflation persistence. The December 2025 and March 2026 Fed meetings will provide critical signals about the rate environment heading into April. Key factors: - Current SOFR trading levels and Fed funds futures prices as of June 2026 versus the April target level - Inflation data releases between now and April 2026, especially CPI and PCE readings that signal whether disinflation is on track - Fed meeting outcomes and forward guidance in December 2025 and March 2026, which will shape rate expectations - Market pricing divergence: Polymarket contracts average 33% vs. Kalshi's 31%, suggesting modest disagreement on probability despite small sample size - Historical volatility of SOFR around Fed policy announcements and the gap between current market expectations and the April threshold being tested Contracts: - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000 — 39¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 25%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000 — 53¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 19%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000 — 69¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 18%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000 — 28¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 12%) - What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500 — 74¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 6%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000 — 5¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 5%) - What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000 — 13¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 4%) - Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027?: Karoline Leavitt — 31¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-17T16:20:17.880Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sofr-hit-april Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20SOFR%20hit%20__%20in%20April%3F%3A%20%E2%86%913.74%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev