5% — Solana all time high by ___
Leader: December 31, 2026 at 5% · Polymarket 5% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 16:00:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market asks whether Solana will reach a new all-time high by a specific date. At 10%, traders currently assign a low probability to this outcome. Solana's previous all-time high was approximately $260 in November 2021. For this to resolve positively, SOL would need substantial appreciation from current levels, requiring either broad crypto market strength or Solana-specific adoption catalysts. The main drivers of the probability are Bitcoin and Ethereum momentum—both showing modest positive pricing for all-time-high outcomes by mid-to-late 2026—and Solana's competitive position among layer-1 blockchains. Network activity, validator growth, and TVL trends will influence whether traders believe Solana can outpace its previous peak. The key uncertainty is whether macro conditions and competitive dynamics permit Solana to capture significant capital flows relative to other assets through the contract expiration date.

Key factors:
- Solana's current price relative to its ~$260 November 2021 all-time high and the capital appreciation required to exceed it
- Trading volume and daily active users on Solana relative to competing layer-1 chains, measurable on-chain
- Bitcoin and Ethereum all-time-high probabilities (19% and 13% by December 2026 respectively), indicating overall market sentiment on crypto gains
- Total value locked and application ecosystem growth on Solana, trackable through major DeFi and NFT platforms
- Macro conditions: spot Bitcoin ETF flows, regulatory developments, and interest rate environment affecting risk asset appetite through contract expiration

Contracts:
- Solana all time high by ___?: December 31, 2026 — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- Solana all time high by ___?: September 30, 2026 — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/solana-all-time-high
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Solana%20all%20time%20high%20by%20___
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev