91% — Will at least 40 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026
Leader: At least 35 GWdc at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether the United States will install at least 40 gigawatts of solar capacity during 2026. The 91% probability reflects market participants' assessment that this installation target is highly likely to be met. Solar deployment has accelerated in recent years due to falling costs, tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act, and corporate renewable energy commitments. The main factors supporting high confidence are existing project pipelines and construction timelines already underway; the main downside risks involve supply chain disruptions, permitting delays, or financing constraints. Resolution hinges on year-end 2026 data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration or Solar Energy Industries Association reporting total installed capacity for the calendar year.

Key factors:
- U.S. solar installations in 2023 totaled approximately 31 GWdc; reaching 40 GWdc represents a 29% increase year-over-year
- The Inflation Reduction Act tax credits and investment tax incentives directly reduce the cost of projects that were planned or partially financed before 2026
- Utility-scale solar projects under construction have typical 18-36 month lead times; pipeline visibility is relatively high for early-2026 starts
- Supply chain constraints for solar panels and inverters have eased substantially since 2021-2022, reducing project delay risk
- Manufacturing incentives and tariff structures will influence component costs and completion rates in the second half of 2026

Contracts:
- Will at least 35 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?: At least 35 GWdc — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will at least 40 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?: At least 40 GWdc — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will at least 45 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?: At least 45 GWdc — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will at least 50 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?: At least 50 GWdc — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will at least 55 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026?: At least 55 GWdc — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/solar
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20at%20least%2040%20GWdc%20of%20solar%20capacity%20be%20installed%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev