3% — Will SOL trimmed mean be above $105.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Kalshi 3% · 1 contracts · $829 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:36 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Solana's trimmed mean price will exceed $105 by the end of April 2026, currently priced at 4% probability. The low probability reflects skepticism that SOL will appreciate significantly from recent levels over the next ten months. The main factor supporting higher prices would be sustained institutional adoption or positive regulatory developments for crypto assets, while macroeconomic headwinds, competitive pressures from other blockchains, or broader market downturns could keep prices lower. SOL's actual price movement through Q3 and Q4 2025, alongside Bitcoin's trajectory (which historically correlates with altcoin performance), will be the primary driver of how this uncertainty resolves.

Key factors:
- SOL's current trading price relative to $105 target and historical volatility patterns
- Bitcoin's price direction and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment through late 2025 and early 2026
- Regulatory announcements or policy changes affecting crypto asset classification and trading in major markets
- Solana network adoption metrics and competitive positioning versus Ethereum and other Layer 1 blockchains
- Macroeconomic conditions and risk-on sentiment in equities and alternative assets heading into April 2026

Contracts:
- Will SOL trimmed mean be above $90.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $90.00 — 3¢ Kalshi $829 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-23T03:20:49.875Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/solmaxmon-sol
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20SOL%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20above%20%24105.00%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev