81% — South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner
Leader: Pamela Evette at 81% · Polymarket 81% · 4 contracts · $34K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-11 20:08:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 35% probability reflects the market's assessment that a particular candidate leads the South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary race, though no outcome is heavily favored—the top four candidates range from 21% to 35%. The primary outcome will be determined by voter preferences in South Carolina's Republican primary election, with key drivers including candidate name recognition, fundraising totals, endorsements from state party leadership, and turnout patterns among different voter segments. The Republican primary election date, along with any major polling releases or campaign developments in the months preceding it, will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this market. Currently fragmented support across multiple viable candidates suggests genuine uncertainty about who will ultimately secure the nomination.

Key factors:
- Top candidate has 35% implied probability while runner-up holds 30%, indicating competitive field with no dominant frontrunner across four major candidates
- Pricing varies significantly across platforms and specific candidate contracts, suggesting liquidity concentration and potential arbitrage opportunities reflecting uncertainty
- 24-hour trading volumes range from $1,380 to $2,619 across related contracts, indicating moderate but not exceptional market engagement for this race
- Candidate fundraising levels, donor support networks, and grassroots organization strength will measurably affect final primary vote shares
- Official South Carolina Republican primary election date will serve as the hard resolution point, with all current probabilities representing pre-election market expectations

Contracts:
- South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner: Pamela Evette — 81¢ Polymarket $23K (weight 69%)
- South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner: Alan Wilson — 12¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 10%)
- South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner: Rom Reddy — 3¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 11%)
- South Carolina Governor Republican Primary Winner: Nancy Mace — 3¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 10%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T23:20:09.340Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/south-carolina-governor-republican-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=South%20Carolina%20Governor%20Republican%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev