10% — Where is the S&P 500 heading?
Polymarket 10% · 12 contracts · $605K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:41 UTC

Why this matters:
The S&P 500 is currently trading at $734, with prediction markets indicating virtually no probability of the index hitting extreme thresholds like $8,000 by the end of June. While outlooks for the remainder of the year remain conservative, markets currently assign a 34% probability that the index closes below $6,200 by December.

Key factors:
- SPY current price $734
- December volatility expectations
- Limited upside momentum

Contracts:
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?: ↓ $6,000 — 0¢ Polymarket $126K (weight 21%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?: ↓ $6,300 — 0¢ Polymarket $124K (weight 21%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?: ↑ $8,000 — 0¢ Polymarket $49K (weight 8%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?: ↑ $7,700 — 3¢ Polymarket $44K (weight 7%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: ↓ $5,200 — 14¢ Polymarket $32K (weight 5%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: ↓ $6,200 — 34¢ Polymarket $28K (weight 5%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?: ↑ $7,850 — 1¢ Polymarket $28K (weight 5%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: ↓ $4,500 — 6¢ Polymarket $28K (weight 5%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:40:52.237Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sp500-prediction
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Where%20is%20the%20S%26P%20500%20heading%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev