14% — Where is the S&P 500 heading?
Polymarket 14% · 15 contracts · $360K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 07:19:57 UTC

Why this matters:
The S&P 500 is currently trading at $767.29, with prediction markets showing a 34% probability that the index reaches $8,200 by the end of December. Conversely, there is minimal market-implied expectation for significant downside, with the probability of the index dropping below $6,000 by year-end estimated at only 8%. While current market sentiment leans toward potential upside, the index faces broader macroeconomic headwinds including an interest rate environment of 3.88%.

Key factors:
- S&P 500 at $767.29
- 34% chance of $8,200 by year-end
- 8% risk of closing below $6,000
- 3.88% effective Fed funds rate

Contracts:
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: ↓ $5,200 — 4¢ Polymarket $72K (weight 20%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: ↓ $4,500 — 3¢ Polymarket $63K (weight 17%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: ↓ $6,200 — 8¢ Polymarket $62K (weight 17%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: ↓ $5,800 — 7¢ Polymarket $45K (weight 12%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: ↑ $8,600 — 9¢ Polymarket $32K (weight 9%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: ↑ $8,200 — 34¢ Polymarket $24K (weight 7%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?: <$6,000 — 8¢ Polymarket $24K (weight 7%)
- What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?: ↑ $9,300 — 5¢ Polymarket $10K (weight 3%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T06:42:28.341Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sp500-prediction
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Where%20is%20the%20S%26P%20500%20heading%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev