31% — Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2035
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2035 at 31% · Kalshi 31% · 6 contracts · $19K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:11:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2035?: Before Jan 1, 2035 — 31¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 22%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2033?: Before Jan 1, 2033 — 24¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 11%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2031?: Before Jan 1, 2031 — 19¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 22%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030 — 14¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 28%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029 — 10¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 11%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.193Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/spacedatacenter-26
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20reported%20by%20any%20of%20the%20Source%20Agencies%20that%20the%20operational%20deployment%20in%20Earth%20orbit%20of%20a%20data%20center%20delivering%20at%20least%201%20megawatt%20of%20electrical%20power%20to%20compute%20hardware%20on%20a%20single%20spacecraft%20or%20a%20unified%20co-orbital%20cluster%20operating%20as%20one%20compute%20system%2C%20actively%20processing%20workloads%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202035
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev