99% — Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?
Kalshi 99% · 4 contracts · $4 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-23 23:38:44 UTC

Contracts:
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.24T? — 99¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 25%)
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.59T? — 99¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 25%)
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.64T? — 99¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 25%)
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.69T? — 99¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 25%)
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.29T? — 0¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.34T? — 0¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.39T? — 0¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Total Public Debt on July 31, 2026 be above 39.44T? — 0¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T06:41:53.848Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "99% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/spacex-ipo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20SpaceX%20IPO%20in%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev