92% — SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Leader: June 30 at 92% · Polymarket 92% · 7 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:53:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 82% probability indicates market participants assess a high likelihood that SpaceX will attempt Flight Test 12 of Starship by May 31, 2026. Current market pricing reflects confidence in near-term launch readiness, though uncertainty remains about exact timing and mission success. The May 31 contract significantly outprices later date alternatives (May 22 at 55%, June 30 at 52%), suggesting traders expect launch attempts within the next four weeks rather than delays extending into June. Market participants are also pricing a 28% chance the mission includes a successful Chopsticks catch of the Super Heavy booster, a more complex objective than flight itself. The main factor supporting the high probability is SpaceX's demonstrated cadence of Starship test flights; factors that could lower it include regulatory delays, technical issues discovered during pre-flight checks, or unfavorable launch window conditions. Resolution depends on whether SpaceX announces and executes a Flight Test 12 launch attempt before May 31.

Key factors:
- SpaceX completed Flight Test 11 in April 2024; the cadence and timeline from that mission to a May 2026 attempt would determine if 82% is consistent with historical launch intervals
- FAA licensing and range availability constraints have delayed previous Starship tests; any new regulatory holds or range conflicts before May 31 would directly contradict the high probability
- May 31 contract (82¢) commands a 27-percentage-point premium over May 22 (55¢), indicating traders expect either a delay past mid-May or confidence the window extends to late May
- Chopsticks booster catch pricing at only 28¢ while flight attempt prices at 82¢ suggests marginal market confidence in that specific objective, even if the launch occurs
- Weather, propellant loading issues, or discovered hardware anomalies during final countdown integration typically resolve within days; no public schedule has been announced as of May 6, 2026

Contracts:
- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: June 30 — 92¢ Polymarket $32 (weight 0%)
- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: May 31 — 87¢ Polymarket $550 (weight 6%)
- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: Super Heavy booster explodes? — 83¢ Polymarket $725 (weight 8%)
- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: May 22 — 79¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 13%)
- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: Successful splash down? — 59¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 50%)
- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: May 15 — 4¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 17%)
- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? — 3¢ Polymarket $581 (weight 6%)

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/spacex-starship-flight-test-12
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=SpaceX%20Starship%20Flight%20Test%2012
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev