96% — How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 Leader: Above 10 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 14 contracts · $18K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:57 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes. Why this matters: The market prices a 94% probability that SpaceX will complete more than 12 launches in 2026, with much lower probabilities assigned to 13+ or 14+ launches. This assessment reflects expectations about SpaceX's operational capacity, launch cadence, and mission manifest for the year. Key drivers include SpaceX's current launch infrastructure, regulatory approval timelines, and customer demand. The probability could shift based on actual launch performance through the year—successful execution would reinforce confidence, while delays or technical issues would lower expectations. Uncertainty will gradually resolve as 2026 progresses and launch attempts occur, with the final outcome determined by SpaceX's actual launch count on December 31, 2026. Key factors: - SpaceX's 2025 launch cadence and achieved flight rate provides a baseline for 2026 forecasting - Regulatory throughput from the FAA, particularly licensing decisions for Starship, directly enables or constrains launch capacity - Customer manifest backlog and commercial demand are needed to fill available launch windows - Technical setbacks or grounding events would materially lower the probability of meeting threshold targets - The probability gap between 12+ (94%), 13+ (50%), and 14+ (13%) suggests consensus expectations cluster around 13 launches but carry substantial variance Contracts: - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 10 — 96¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 8%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 120 — 96¢ Kalshi $352 (weight 2%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 11 — 91¢ Kalshi $728 (weight 4%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 140 — 80¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 12 — 80¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 13 — 63¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 23%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160 — 32¢ Kalshi $378 (weight 2%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 170 — 31¢ Kalshi $234 (weight 1%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.553Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/spacexcount Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20launches%20will%20SpaceX%20have%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev