97% — How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 Leader: Above 120 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 13 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-07 12:53:59 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing an extremely high probability (97%) that SpaceX will conduct more than 11 launches in August 2026. This reflects strong confidence in the company's launch cadence based on historical performance and announced mission schedules. The high pricing suggests traders expect SpaceX to maintain its recent operational tempo during this specific month. The probability could decline if SpaceX experiences delays, supply-chain disruptions, or regulatory holds on planned missions. Resolution arrives on August 31, 2026, when the actual launch count for the month becomes definitive. The tight clustering of probabilities across the 11-14 launch range (97% down to 20%) indicates uncertainty about the upper bound of monthly capacity, even as base-case achievement appears nearly certain. Key factors: - SpaceX's documented launch cadence in 2025-2026 and manifested August mission schedule - Availability of flight-ready Falcon 9 boosters and payload readiness for August missions - Regulatory approval status and any potential FAA or international licensing delays - Weather and technical scrub patterns typical for the launch window in August - Full-year 2026 pace (97% confidence in exceeding 140 total launches) as context for monthly feasibility Contracts: - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 120 — 97¢ Kalshi $115 (weight 1%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?: Above 8 — 86¢ Kalshi $342 (weight 3%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?: Above 9 — 73¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 140 — 72¢ Kalshi $54 (weight 0%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?: Above 10 — 33¢ Kalshi $704 (weight 6%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in Sep 2026?: Above 11 — 16¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 26%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160 — 9¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 29%) - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 150 — 9¢ Kalshi $95 (weight 1%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-07T12:20:50.480Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/spacexcount Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20launches%20will%20SpaceX%20have%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev