88% — Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026
Leader: Before September 17th at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 6 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:43:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that SpaceX will launch another Starship vehicle before July 17, 2026—roughly 7 weeks from now. The 31-cent price implies traders see significant uncertainty, with a roughly one-in-three chance of a launch by mid-July. Traders are more confident in launches by later dates: 61 cents by end of July and 88 cents by mid-September, suggesting the market expects delays or scheduling challenges in the near term. The main factors are SpaceX's recent launch cadence, regulatory approval timelines, technical readiness of the next vehicle, and any ground infrastructure constraints. The largest near-term catalyst is any official SpaceX announcement of a confirmed launch date or a regulatory clearance decision from the FAA.

Key factors:
- SpaceX's Starship launch frequency over the past 6-12 months and trend direction in flight rate
- FAA environmental or licensing approvals required for launches, and whether they are already granted or pending
- Technical readiness of the next Starship vehicle and booster, including any known damage from recent flights or maintenance schedules
- Weather patterns and launch window availability at Boca Chica or other facilities during June and early July 2026
- Market pricing across the May-to-September contracts suggests traders expect at least one launch by August, but material doubt about July completion

Contracts:
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?: Before September 17th — 88¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 0%)
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026?: Before September — 84¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026?: Before August 17th — 76¢ Kalshi $320 (weight 4%)
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?: Before August — 62¢ Kalshi $283 (weight 3%)
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026?: Before July 17th — 28¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 39%)
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jun 30, 2026?: Before July — 8¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 53%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.219Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/spacexstarship-13
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20SpaceX%20launch%20another%20Starship%20by%20Jul%2016%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev