86% — Spain vs. Cabo Verde
Leader: Spain at 86% · Polymarket 86% · 3 contracts · $240 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:08:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing Spain as a heavy favorite to defeat Cabo Verde with 90% implied probability, with some contracts suggesting slightly lower odds around 87%. This reflects Spain's stronger playing history, ranking advantage, and general footballing capacity compared to Cabo Verde. The primary drivers of this probability are team strength differentials and recent form. The main factor that could shift this would be injury status of key Spain players or unexpected Cabo Verde tactical adjustments, though the baseline expectation remains a Spain win. The match itself—the scheduled competition date—serves as the key catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty and determine whether the market-implied probability aligns with the actual outcome.

Key factors:
- Spain is ranked significantly higher in FIFA rankings and has a superior historical record against Cabo Verde
- Polymarket and Kalshi show slight disagreement (90¢ vs. 87¢), suggesting some residual uncertainty despite the heavy favorite pricing
- Implied probability of a Cabo Verde win ranges from 3–10% depending on the contract, indicating low but non-negligible tail risk
- 24-hour trading volume is highest on the Spain-favored Polymarket contract ($96), suggesting this is the most actively priced version
- Related markets show Spain as favored in other matchups (87¢ vs. Saudi Arabia), reinforcing broader market confidence in Spanish performance

Contracts:
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain — 86¢ Polymarket $178 (weight 74%)
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw (Spain vs. Cabo Verde) — 8¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 13%)
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde — 7¢ Polymarket $31 (weight 13%)

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/spain-vs-cabo-verde
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Spain%20vs.%20Cabo%20Verde
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev