94% — When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 01:57:43 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This measures the probability that SpaceX will launch the Dragon Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station before January 1, 2027. The 87% probability reflects strong market confidence in a launch within the next six months, though the contract structure shows meaningful uncertainty about timing within that window. Market prices drop sharply for September launches (11–33¢) but remain elevated for October through December (79–85¢), suggesting traders expect a delay into the final months of 2026. The outcome depends on SpaceX's current launch cadence, vehicle readiness, and any technical or weather-related postponements. The primary catalyst will be SpaceX's official announcement of the Dragon Crew-13 launch date and any schedule adjustments in the coming weeks. A crewed Dragon launch typically requires 2–4 months of preparation after the previous mission completes.

Key factors:
- SpaceX's historical Dragon crewed mission launch success rate and typical turnaround time between successive crew missions
- Current status and completion date of Dragon Crew-12 mission, which must conclude before Crew-13 can launch
- Number of scheduled launch windows SpaceX has reserved for Crew-13 in Q3 and Q4 2026 according to NASA flight schedules
- Any publicly announced technical issues, manufacturing delays, or schedule revisions from SpaceX or NASA in recent months
- Historical frequency of launch postponements for crewed missions due to weather, technical inspection findings, or payload readiness

Contracts:
- When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before Sep 27, 2026 — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before Sep 20, 2026 — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13?: Before Sep 13, 2026 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T01:20:51.898Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/spcxlaunch-crew13
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20SpaceX%20launch%20Dragon%20Crew-13
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev