77% — When will SpaceX launch Dragon CRS-35
Leader: Before Nov 1, 2026 at 77% · Kalshi 77% · 2 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 05:19:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 89% probability reflects market consensus that SpaceX will launch the Dragon CRS-35 resupply mission to the International Space Station before November 1, 2026. The high confidence is supported by SpaceX's demonstrated track record with Dragon cargo missions and typical launch cadences, though the lower prices for earlier windows (13–42¢ through August) suggest lingering uncertainty about near-term scheduling. Launch timing depends on ISS operational needs, payload readiness, and weather constraints. The primary catalyst will be SpaceX's official announcement of the launch date and any delays or technical issues that emerge during pre-flight preparation. A launch confirmation in late July or early August would likely shift near-term probabilities upward significantly.

Key factors:
- SpaceX has completed 34 Dragon CRS missions with a high success rate, establishing baseline reliability for orbital resupply operations
- The November 1 deadline provides approximately four months from today, a window consistent with typical cargo mission scheduling intervals
- Earlier August windows trade at substantially lower prices (13–42¢), indicating the market expects delays beyond early summer or reflects real constraints not yet publicly disclosed
- ISS resupply missions are coordinated with station operations, crew rotations, and cargo priorities—external scheduling pressures beyond SpaceX's control
- Official launch date announcement from SpaceX or NASA would be the most direct resolution of current timing uncertainty

Contracts:
- When will SpaceX launch Dragon CRS-35?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 77¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 1%)
- When will SpaceX launch Dragon CRS-35?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 99%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-24T04:20:54.661Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/spcxlaunch-crs35
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20SpaceX%20launch%20Dragon%20CRS-35
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev