26% — Will sports prediction markets be banned?
Kalshi 34% · Polymarket 12% · 25 contracts · $1.1M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 02:35:00 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 22pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?     : July 31 — 4¢ Polymarket $943K (weight 88%)
- Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? — 12¢ Polymarket $43K (weight 4%)
- Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: ICE — 1¢ Polymarket $33K (weight 3%)
- Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: Aristotle — 35¢ Polymarket $22K (weight 2%)
- Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? — 17¢ Polymarket $17K (weight 2%)
- Will Max Verstappen finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix? — 34¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 0%)
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix? — 61¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 0%)
- Will George Russell finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix? — 60¢ Kalshi $527 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T06:41:50.369Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sports-betting-ban
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20sports%20prediction%20markets%20be%20banned%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev