20% — Will sports prediction markets be banned?
Kalshi 25% · Polymarket 20% · 9 contracts · $82K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 05:26:51 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 5pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? — 10¢ Polymarket $44K (weight 54%)
- Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? — 13¢ Polymarket $18K (weight 21%)
- SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?     : December 31 — 43¢ Polymarket $13K (weight 16%)
- Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31?: Small Exchange — 14¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 4%)
- Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31?: CBOE — 14¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 4%)
- Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31?: ForecastEx — 11¢ Polymarket $825 (weight 1%)
- Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31?: ICE — 12¢ Polymarket $650 (weight 1%)
- SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?     : October 31 — 42¢ Polymarket $22 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-09T06:42:22.613Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sports-betting-ban
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20sports%20prediction%20markets%20be%20banned%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev