86% — Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 780 Million Monthly Active Users in Q1 2026
Leader: Before Jul 1, 2027 at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 7 contracts · $417K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 07:44:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027 — 86¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 4%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027 — 84¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 0%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 75¢ Kalshi $35K (weight 8%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 63¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 4%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 57¢ Kalshi $25K (weight 6%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 48¢ Kalshi $167K (weight 40%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026 — 17¢ Kalshi $156K (weight 37%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-14T11:20:53.385Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/spotifymau
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Spotify%20Technology%20S.A.%20report%20above%20780%20Million%20Monthly%20Active%20Users%20in%20Q1%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev