82% — When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped
Leader: Before Dec 5, 2026 at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Spotify will release its 2026 Wrapped feature by December 5, 2026. Historically, Spotify releases Wrapped in early November, making a December release date plausible but somewhat later than the typical pattern. The current 82% assessment suggests traders view a December release as likely but not certain, possibly reflecting uncertainty about whether Spotify might shift its timing or consolidate with other year-end features. The main resolution driver is Spotify's actual announcement date for 2026 Wrapped, which typically occurs in late October or early November. Factors that could shift this probability include changes to Spotify's product roadmap, integration with new features, or delays in data processing pipelines.

Key factors:
- Spotify's historical Wrapped release pattern: consistently deployed in early-to-mid November for the past five years
- Current market price reflects December 5 specifically; earlier November releases would favor alternative contracts and lower this probability
- Seven separate outcome contracts exist, suggesting material disagreement among traders about which specific date is most likely
- Trading volume and contract spreads ($623–$1,055 in 24h volume) indicate active but modest participation, suggesting moderate confidence rather than consensus
- The runner-up contract at 79% represents a competing date hypothesis; the 3-point gap suggests relatively tight uncertainty about exact release timing

Contracts:
- When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped?: Before Dec 5, 2026 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped?: Before Dec 4, 2026 — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped?: Before Dec 3, 2026 — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped?: Before Dec 2, 2026 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped?: Before Nov 30, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)
- When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped?: Before Nov 29, 2026 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%)

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/spotifywrappedrelease
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20Spotify%20release%202026%20Wrapped
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev