76% — Will the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 3, 2026 be above 314M Leader: Above 308M at 76% · Kalshi 76% · 8 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-09 21:03:12 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects traders' assessment of whether the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will hold at least 314 million barrels for the week ending July 3, 2026. At 82% probability, traders view this level as likely. The SPR level fluctuates based on crude oil purchase and sale decisions by the Department of Energy, influenced by oil prices, domestic production needs, and Congressional budget actions. The key driver is whether DOE will continue recent net purchases or shift toward sales or drawdowns. Resolution depends on the official SPR data release from the Energy Information Administration, typically published weekly on Wednesdays, which provides the definitive week-ending inventory figure. Contract pricing across the range (314M to 322M) suggests traders expect reserves somewhere in the 314-318M barrel range, with diminishing confidence at higher levels. Key factors: - Recent SPR net purchase or sale activity and DOE's stated inventory management plans for Q3 2026 - Oil market prices and whether DOE views current price levels as appropriate for adding to or drawing down reserves - Congressional actions or budget provisions affecting SPR fill or sale authorities during 2026 - The official EIA weekly petroleum status report release date and historical volatility in reported SPR figures - Domestic crude oil production levels and refinery demand, which indirectly signal whether strategic reserves are being drawn for market supply Contracts: - Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 308M?: Above 308M — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 310M?: Above 310M — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 312M?: Above 312M — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 314M?: Above 314M — 46¢ Kalshi $323 (weight 14%) - Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 316M?: Above 316M — 19¢ Kalshi $319 (weight 14%) - Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 318M?: Above 318M — 7¢ Kalshi $584 (weight 25%) - Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 320M?: Above 320M — 7¢ Kalshi $477 (weight 21%) - Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 322M?: Above 322M — 6¢ Kalshi $620 (weight 27%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-09T20:20:50.597Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/sprlvl Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20Strategic%20Petroleum%20Reserve%20level%20for%20the%20week%20ending%20July%203%2C%202026%20be%20above%20314M Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev