9% — St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes
Kalshi 9% · 3 contracts · $859 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:23:13 UTC

Why this matters:
This 9% probability represents the aggregate market expectation that San Jose Earthquakes will defeat St. Louis City SC in an upcoming match. The low probability reflects San Jose's recent performance relative to St. Louis, along with any relevant head-to-head history or current standings. Market participants are pricing in St. Louis as the favored outcome. The probability would shift based on team roster changes, injury reports, or public odds from major sportsbooks closer to match day. The match result will provide full resolution, with the exact date determining when this uncertainty fully clears. Traders monitoring MLS standings, recent form, and Vegas spreads would have primary signals for directional moves before kickoff.

Key factors:
- San Jose's MLS season win-loss record and current playoff position relative to St. Louis City SC
- Head-to-head historical performance between the two teams and any relevant tactical or personnel matchups
- Injury status and lineup availability for key players on both sides ahead of the scheduled match
- Las Vegas sportsbook moneyline odds and implied win probability for San Jose, as external reference point
- Distance and travel factors, if applicable, plus home/away performance splits for both teams this season

Contracts:
- Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference?: San Jose — 19¢ Kalshi $585 (weight 68%)
- Will St. Louis be the 2026 NL Central Division Winner: St. Louis — 4¢ Kalshi $274 (weight 32%)
- Will San Jose win the MLS Cup?: San Jose — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:51.251Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/st-louis-city-sc-vs-san-jose-earthquakes
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=St.%20Louis%20City%20SC%20vs.%20San%20Jose%20Earthquakes
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev