9% — St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets
Kalshi 9% · 3 contracts · $859 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:23:52 UTC

Why this matters:
This 7% probability reflects the likelihood of a specific outcome between St. Louis City SC and San Jose Earthquakes in an MLS-related context. The low probability suggests market participants view this scenario as unlikely given current circumstances. The primary drivers appear to be team performance metrics and league standings rather than individual player transfers, as evidenced by the contract mix emphasizing divisional and conference outcomes. The cross-venue gap of 3 percentage points indicates some disagreement between Kalshi and Polymarket participants about baseline probability. The most relevant upcoming resolution events would be the remainder of the 2026 MLS regular season and playoff structure, which determine competitive positioning and advancement. Notably, several contracts show minimal trading volume, suggesting lower conviction or liquidity around this particular market.

Key factors:
- San Jose's current MLS Cup odds (4¢) directly price their championship pathway; significant improvements in their regular season record would increase related contract values
- St. Louis City's divisional winner contract (3¢) underprices them relative to 7% aggregate, suggesting either weak recent performance or market skepticism about their 2026 competitiveness
- Low trading volume on the Cristiano Ronaldo contract ($0) indicates minimal market confidence in the transfer scenario, despite the 10¢ Polymarket price representing the highest individual contract probability
- The 3-percentage-point gap between venues may reflect different participant bases or information sets; Polymarket's higher assessment warrants monitoring for new data or statements affecting either team
- Most contracts lack 24-hour volume, suggesting limited recent information flow and the market may move substantially on roster changes, injury updates, or official league announcements

Contracts:
- Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference?: San Jose — 19¢ Kalshi $585 (weight 68%)
- Will St. Louis be the 2026 NL Central Division Winner: St. Louis — 4¢ Kalshi $274 (weight 32%)
- Will San Jose win the MLS Cup?: San Jose — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.026Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/st-louis-city-sc-vs-san-jose-earthquakes-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=St.%20Louis%20City%20SC%20vs.%20San%20Jose%20Earthquakes%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev