39% — Starmer out by...
Polymarket 39% · 3 contracts · $42K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 21:05:01 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract assigns a 67% probability that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will leave office by December 31, 2026. The high probability reflects near-term political risks including potential health crises, internal Labour Party instability, or sudden electoral pressures that could force an early departure. The baseline expectation is that Starmer serves most of his current term, but the 2026 date window captures meaningful uncertainty around mid-term viability. Key drivers include polling trends showing Labour's position relative to the Conservative opposition, internal party cohesion following recent elections, and major fiscal or policy decisions that could trigger confidence votes. The most immediate catalyst would be any sudden announcement of resignation, serious illness, or significant erosion in parliamentary support over the coming months.

Key factors:
- Current polling averages and Labour's standing relative to the Conservative Party as of May 2026
- Starmer's health status and any publicly disclosed medical events
- Labour's internal party stability, including any backbench rebellions or cabinet resignations
- Occurrences of no-confidence votes or formal challenges to his leadership within the party or Parliament
- Major fiscal announcements or policy reversals that could trigger sudden political shifts

Contracts:
- Starmer out by...?: May 15 — 10¢ Polymarket $18K (weight 35%)
- Starmer out by...?: December 31 — 67¢ Polymarket $16K (weight 34%)
- Starmer out by...?: June 30 — 41¢ Polymarket $8K (weight 31%)

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/starmer-out
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Starmer%20out%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev