24% — How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?
Kalshi 60% · 12 contracts · $57K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:26:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? — 60¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 3%)
- Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 2 in 2026? — 51¢ Kalshi $214 (weight 0%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? — 46¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 6%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? — 31¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 14%)
- Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026? — 26¢ Kalshi $564 (weight 1%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? — 14¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 12%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 110 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? — 14¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 4 in 2026? — 12¢ Kalshi $341 (weight 1%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-22T06:42:15.979Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/starship-launches-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20SpaceX%20Starship%20launches%20in%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev