55% — How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?
Kalshi 87% · 6 contracts · $42K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:01:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026? — 87¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026? — 85¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026? — 77¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 10%)
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026? — 57¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 23%)
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026? — 21¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 28%)
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jun 30, 2026? — 5¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 29%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-08T06:41:43.732Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/starship-launches-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20SpaceX%20Starship%20launches%20in%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev