53% — How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?
Kalshi 94% · 15 contracts · $69K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-07 12:54:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 130000 as reported for December 2026? — 94¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 7%)
- Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 25000 in 2026? — 91¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 7%)
- Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 27500 in 2026? — 82¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 6%)
- Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 140000 as reported for December 2026? — 80¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 2%)
- Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026? — 71¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 23%)
- Will the number of lead and galvanized-previously-connected-to-lead (GPCL) service lines fully replaced statewide by Michigan community water supplies, as compiled and published by EGLE from the annual service line replacement reports required by Michigan's Lead and Copper Rule be above 30000 in 2026? — 69¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 14%)
- Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 150000 as reported for December 2026? — 63¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 2%)
- Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 160000 as reported for December 2026? — 50¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 3%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-07T06:41:13.697Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "53% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/starship-launches-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20SpaceX%20Starship%20launches%20in%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev