40% — Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida before Aug 1, 2026
Leader: Before 2027 at 40% · Kalshi 40% · 2 contracts · $10 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 01:45:56 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 38% probability reflects market belief that SpaceX's Starship will complete a launch from Florida within the next 14 months. The market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty despite SpaceX's track record and Florida facility readiness. Launch timing depends on regulatory approvals, technical readiness following recent test flights, and maintenance schedules. The next scheduled Starship test flight will provide direct evidence of progress and could shift probabilities materially. Near-term factors include FAA licensing decisions and whether SpaceX maintains its operational cadence through summer 2026.

Key factors:
- SpaceX's most recent Starship test flight results and any damage assessment affecting launch readiness
- FAA approval status and any new environmental or safety conditions imposed on Florida launches
- Technical modifications required after previous test flights and publicly announced timelines for completion
- Competition and congestion at Florida launch facilities affecting scheduling
- Regulatory or weather delays historically seen in Starship's launch history

Contracts:
- Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida this year?: Before 2027 — 40¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 100%)
- Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida before Oct 1, 2026: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:50.962Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/starshipfl-26jun
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20SpaceX's%20Starship%20launch%20from%20Florida%20before%20Aug%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev