34% — Will Jacoby Brissett be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1 Kalshi 34% · 13 contracts · $464 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:38 UTC Why this matters: This prediction estimates a 40% chance that Jacoby Brissett will be Arizona's starting quarterback when the 2026 NFL season opens in Week 1. The market reflects uncertainty about Arizona's quarterback depth chart heading into summer, with Brissett competing against other roster options or potential acquisitions. The probability would shift based on Arizona's draft decisions, free-agent moves, and any trade activity targeting veteran quarterbacks. Training camp performance and official roster announcements in August-September will be the primary catalysts that resolve this market, as teams typically finalize their opening-day starting lineups by late August. Similar QB starter markets show comparable volatility, with probability ranges typically tightening significantly once the NFL season approaches and teams make final personnel decisions. Key factors: - Arizona's draft strategy in April-May 2026, particularly whether they select a quarterback early or address other roster needs - Transactions involving other quarterbacks on Arizona's roster or availability of veteran free agents during offseason - Brissett's performance during minicamp and training camp in July-August, which directly influences coaching staff decisions - Official depth chart announcements from Arizona coaching staff in late August before Week 1 - Injury status of competing quarterbacks on the roster or incoming acquisitions Contracts: - Will Shedeur Sanders be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1?: Shedeur Sanders — 34¢ Kalshi $334 (weight 72%) - Will Deshaun Watson be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1?: Deshaun Watson — 60¢ Kalshi $82 (weight 18%) - Will Dillon Gabriel be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1?: Dillon Gabriel — 4¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 8%) - Will Fernando Mendoza be Starting Quarterback for Las Vegas in Week 1?: Fernando Mendoza — 8¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%) - Will Aaron Rodgers be starting quarterback for Pittsburgh in Week 1?: Aaron Rodgers — 76¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%) - Will Geno Smith be starting quarterback for New York J in Week 1?: Geno Smith — 68¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Will Tua Tagovailoa be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1?: Tua Tagovailoa — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carson Beck be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1?: Carson Beck — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.315Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/startingqbweek1-w1 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jacoby%20Brissett%20be%20starting%20quarterback%20for%20Arizona%20in%20Week%201 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev