50% — Will Jacoby Brissett be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1 Kalshi 50% · 12 contracts · $71K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-10-22 20:42:30 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects whether Jacoby Brissett will be Arizona's starting quarterback in the opening game of the 2026 NFL season. At 49%, the probability indicates near-even odds between Brissett starting versus an alternative QB taking the role. The main drivers are Arizona's offseason acquisitions and depth chart decisions, along with injury status entering the season. Competition from other roster options and coaching staff preferences for system fit will also influence the outcome. The key resolution point is Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season, when the team's starting lineup becomes official. Between now and then, training camp performance, preseason games, and any injury developments will provide clearer signals. The market pricing near 50-50 suggests meaningful uncertainty about Arizona's quarterback decision, with material contingencies that could shift the outcome in either direction based on team performance and roster moves. Key factors: - Arizona's draft picks and free agency acquisitions at QB or surrounding positions indicate organizational direction - Jacoby Brissett's performance and health status through training camp and preseason games - Competition from other quarterbacks on Arizona's roster and their relative performance metrics - Coaching staff's stated QB priorities and system requirements heading into the 2026 season - Any trades, acquisitions, or injury developments that affect the QB depth chart between August 2026 and Week 1 Contracts: - Will Patrick Mahomes be starting quarterback for Kansas City in Week 1?: Patrick Mahomes — 93¢ Kalshi $60K (weight 84%) - Will Tua Tagovailoa be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1?: Tua Tagovailoa — 53¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 7%) - Will Michael Penix Jr. be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1?: Michael Penix Jr. — 46¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 5%) - Will Deshaun Watson be starting Quarterback for Cleveland in Week 1?: Deshaun Watson — 97¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 4%) - Will Jack Strand be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1?: Jack Strand — 9¢ Kalshi $137 (weight 0%) - Will Kirk Cousins be Starting Quarterback for Las Vegas in Week 1?: Kirk Cousins — 95¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 0%) - Will Cooper Rush be Starting Quarterback for Atlanta in Week 1?: Cooper Rush — 5¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 0%) - Will Malik Willis be Quarterback for Miami in Week 1?: Malik Willis — 91¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-02T01:20:51.987Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, October 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/startingqbweek1-w1 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jacoby%20Brissett%20be%20starting%20quarterback%20for%20Arizona%20in%20Week%201 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev