72% — Will Amendment 1 pass
Kalshi 72% · 20 contracts · $255 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 22:50:06 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents a 61% probability that Amendment 1, also known as the Acre Limit Amendment, will pass in the upcoming vote. The current probability reflects mixed market sentiment, with the amendment contract trading at 87 cents on Kalshi while showing relatively modest trading volume of $17 in 24 hours. Support levels would likely increase if recent polling shows voters favor limiting acreage restrictions, while opposition could grow if concerns about implementation or economic impacts gain traction. The primary resolution point will be the election date when ballots are counted and official results are certified. Until then, shifts in public opinion, media coverage, and campaign spending may influence the probability as markets incorporate new information about voter preferences on this land-use question.

Key factors:
- The amendment contract trades at 87 cents, suggesting 87% implied probability, which diverges from the 61% average across all 20 Kalshi contracts tracked here
- Trading volume for Amendment 1 is low at $17 in 24 hours compared to Ballot Measure 3 at $47, indicating limited liquidity and potentially thinner price discovery
- Four related ballot measures show varied support levels (76%, 57%, 61%, 29%), suggesting voters may view these land-use and infrastructure questions differently rather than as a unified bloc
- The resolution depends on official election results on a specific date, making pre-election polling data and campaign activity key indicators of directional movement
- Low volume contracts can show larger price swings from small trades, so recent price moves may reflect individual trades rather than broad market consensus

Contracts:
- Will Ballot Measure 2 pass?: Ballot Measure 2 — 27¢ Kalshi $195 (weight 77%)
- Will Proposition 318 pass?: Proposition 318 — 38¢ Kalshi $48 (weight 19%)
- Will Proposition 141 pass?: Proposition 141 — 81¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 2%)
- Will Amendment 1 pass?: Amendment 1 — 89¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 2%)
- Will Amendment 4 pass?: Legislative Salaries Amendment — 43¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will Proposition 144 pass?: Proposition 144 — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ballot Measure 3 pass?: Ballot Measure 3 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Amendment 1 pass?: Amendment 1 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T22:20:49.730Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "72% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/stateballotmeasure
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Amendment%201%20pass
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev