92% — Who will win the Michigan State House
Leader: Republican party at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 20 contracts · $134 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 86% probability reflects traders' assessment that Republicans will win control of the Michigan State House in the next election. This price suggests a decisive Republican advantage in the state's legislative races, though it remains contingent on turnout patterns, district-level dynamics, and any major political shifts before voting occurs. Key factors include the composition of competitive districts, whether state-level momentum favors Republicans or Democrats, and how well each party mobilizes voters in suburban and rural areas. The election result will be determined on the scheduled election day, at which point all uncertainty resolves. Current volatility in related state legislative markets indicates traders view this outcome as probable but not certain.

Key factors:
- Michigan State House district composition and historical Republican performance in competitive seats
- Turnout patterns in suburban districts, which have shifted politically in recent cycles
- State-level political momentum and approval ratings of incumbent leadership heading into the election
- Campaign spending and resource allocation by both parties in targeted districts
- Alignment of Michigan results with broader regional Republican or Democratic performance in other state legislatures

Contracts:
- Who will win the Florida Senate?: Republican party — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the Florida House of Representatives?: Republican party — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the Alaska State Senate?: Republican party — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the Alaska State House?: Republican party — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the Iowa State House?: Republican party — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the Georgia State Senate?: Republican party — 78¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 5%)
- Who will win the Arizona State Senate?: Democratic party — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the Georgia State House?: Republican party — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:48.995Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/stateleg
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20Michigan%20State%20House
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev