91% — Who will win the Michigan State House
Leader: Democratic party at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 19 contracts · $107 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 86% probability reflects traders' assessment that Republicans will win control of the Michigan State House in the next election. This price suggests a decisive Republican advantage in the state's legislative races, though it remains contingent on turnout patterns, district-level dynamics, and any major political shifts before voting occurs. Key factors include the composition of competitive districts, whether state-level momentum favors Republicans or Democrats, and how well each party mobilizes voters in suburban and rural areas. The election result will be determined on the scheduled election day, at which point all uncertainty resolves. Current volatility in related state legislative markets indicates traders view this outcome as probable but not certain.

Key factors:
- Michigan State House district composition and historical Republican performance in competitive seats
- Turnout patterns in suburban districts, which have shifted politically in recent cycles
- State-level political momentum and approval ratings of incumbent leadership heading into the election
- Campaign spending and resource allocation by both parties in targeted districts
- Alignment of Michigan results with broader regional Republican or Democratic performance in other state legislatures

Contracts:
- Who will win the Minnesota State Senate?: Democratic party — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the Ohio State House?: Republican party — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the Ohio State Senate?: Republican party — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the Minnesota State House?: Democratic party — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the North Carolina State House?: Republican party — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the North Carolina State Senate?: Republican party — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the Wisconsin State Senate?: Democratic party — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the New Hampshire State Senate?: Republican party — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/stateleg
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20Michigan%20State%20House
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev