38% — Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?
Kalshi 81% · Polymarket 98% · 21 contracts · $106K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 08:30:19 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Cross-venue gap: 17pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?: September 23 — 98¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 2%)
- Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?: September 21 — 97¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 2%)
- Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?: September 18 — 97¢ Polymarket $295 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026? — 81¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 3%)
- Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?: September 25 — 59¢ Polymarket $34 (weight 0%)
- Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?: September 26 — 58¢ Polymarket $16K (weight 15%)
- Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?: September 30 — 51¢ Polymarket $530 (weight 1%)
- Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?: September 29 — 43¢ Polymarket $10K (weight 10%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-24T06:41:40.119Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/strait-of-hormuz
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20reopen%20to%20normal%20shipping%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev