25% — Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 34% · 26 contracts · $3.7M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-08-09 20:49:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Cross-venue gap: 62pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026? — 96¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026? — 86¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026? — 67¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026? — 38¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 0%)
- How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?: <180 — 34¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 35 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026? — 29¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 0%)
- Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 40 in Aug 2026? — 24¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 0%)
- Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 30 in Aug 2026? — 22¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-09T06:42:22.646Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/strait-of-hormuz
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20reopen%20to%20normal%20shipping%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev