48% — Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?
Leader: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027 at 48% · Kalshi 88% · Polymarket 17% · 14 contracts · $13.0M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 17:52:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Cross-venue gap: 71pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027? — 88¢ Kalshi $225K (weight 2%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? — 88¢ Kalshi $513K (weight 4%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? — 82¢ Kalshi $787K (weight 6%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? — 79¢ Kalshi $72K (weight 1%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? — 76¢ Kalshi $79K (weight 1%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026? — 69¢ Kalshi $599K (weight 5%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026? — 60¢ Kalshi $822K (weight 6%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026? — 49¢ Kalshi $2.4M (weight 18%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-17T06:41:35.318Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/strait-of-hormuz
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20reopen%20to%20normal%20shipping%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev