42% — Will Tie win Streamer of the Year at Streamer Awards 2026
Kalshi 42% · 2 contracts · $28 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:33 UTC

Why this matters:
A 21% probability suggests Tie has a meaningful but minority chance of winning Streamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards. This estimate reflects expectations about Tie's competitive positioning against other prominent streaming personalities. The probability would likely shift based on streaming performance metrics through the awards period, including viewership trends, audience engagement, and community sentiment. The awards ceremony itself, when voting results are announced or winners declared, represents the key catalyst that will resolve this market. Until then, any significant changes in Tie's content momentum, collaborations, or viewership patterns could influence market participants' assessments of their chances against the field of potential contenders.

Key factors:
- Tie's streaming viewership volume and growth trajectory compared to competing streamers eligible for the award
- Community voting patterns and sentiment on social media platforms where streamer awards are typically discussed and voted upon
- Historical precedent showing which streamers have won or placed highly in previous Streamer Awards ceremonies
- Any major streaming-related announcements, controversy, or content shifts involving Tie or top competing streamers between now and the awards date
- The specific voting criteria and eligibility rules set by the 2026 Streamer Awards organizers that determine qualification and ranking

Contracts:
- Will IShowSpeed win Streamer of the Year at Streamer Awards 2026?: IShowSpeed — 67¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 100%)
- Will Jynxzi win Streamer of the Year at Streamer Awards 2026?: Jynxzi — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.328Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/strmrsoty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tie%20win%20Streamer%20of%20the%20Year%20at%20Streamer%20Awards%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev