97% — Will student loans be forgiven?
Leader: $40 trillion at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 3 contracts · $7 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 11:21:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the national debt hit $40 trillion during the Trump Administration?: $40 trillion — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the national debt hit $45 trillion during the Trump Administration?: $45 trillion — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the national debt hit $50 trillion during the Trump Administration?: $50 trillion — 33¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T11:20:49.371Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/student-loan-forgiveness
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20student%20loans%20be%20forgiven%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev