86% — Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026 Leader: Above 260 at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 03:34:49 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract estimates an 86% probability that the Suez Canal will record more than 260 transit calls between July 27 and August 2, 2026. The Suez Canal is one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints, and daily transit volumes fluctuate based on global trade patterns, seasonal demand, vessel scheduling, and any disruptions to canal operations. At this probability level, the market is pricing in a baseline expectation of normal to above-normal traffic flow for this seven-day window. The outcome will be finalized when official transit data is published by the Suez Canal Authority for the specified week. Key uncertainties include whether geopolitical events, weather conditions, or operational incidents disrupt passage, and whether summer shipping patterns align with historical norms or deviate significantly. Key factors: - Suez Canal Authority publishes daily transit counts; the market must wait for official data covering July 27–August 2, 2026 to resolve - Seasonal summer shipping demand and vessel scheduling are major drivers of baseline traffic; sustained disruptions (attacks, blockages, or canal closures) would push counts lower - The spread between 260 (86¢), 270 (74¢), and 280 (64¢) contracts suggests market uncertainty about the magnitude above 260, indicating traders believe the outcome is likely but the exact volume is uncertain - Historical Suez Canal transit averages typically range 40–50 transits per day; 260 in seven days equals ~37 per day, which is plausible but would require verification against recent actuals - No scheduled maintenance or announced force majeure events are priced in at this probability; any new disruption announcement would lower the probability materially Contracts: - Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Aug 10, 2026 to Aug 16, 2026?: Above 260 — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will there be more than 270 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Aug 10, 2026 to Aug 16, 2026?: Above 270 — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will there be more than 280 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Aug 10, 2026 to Aug 16, 2026?: Above 280 — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Aug 10, 2026 to Aug 16, 2026?: Above 290 — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Aug 10, 2026 to Aug 16, 2026?: Above 300 — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T03:20:49.159Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/suezweekly Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%20260%20transit%20calls%20through%20the%20Suez%20Canal%20from%20Jul%2027%2C%202026%20to%20Aug%202%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev