17% — Will Dara Levitan be cast in Summer House
Kalshi 17% · 6 contracts · $19 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-22 04:30:14 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Dara Levitan will be cast in Summer House Season 11. At 26%, the market currently views her casting as somewhat unlikely but plausible. The probability is driven by casting patterns from previous seasons, her visibility within the broader reality TV ecosystem, and whether production decisions have already been finalized. The main catalyst determining the outcome will be the official cast announcement for Season 11, which typically occurs weeks before the season's air date and would definitively resolve this question. Factors like her current relationship status, involvement in other Bravo projects, and scheduling availability may influence casting decisions. Market pricing suggests traders assign meaningful uncertainty to her inclusion, indicating that either her availability is unclear or production hasn't publicly committed to her participation yet.

Key factors:
- Official Summer House Season 11 cast announcement will provide definitive resolution to this question
- Dara's current involvement in other Bravo or television projects may conflict with or support Summer House filming schedules
- Her relationship status and on-screen dynamics with existing cast members factor into casting decisions
- Prior appearance frequency on Summer House and related Bravo programming suggests baseline expectations for her involvement
- Production typically announces Season 11 cast 2-4 weeks before premiere air date, creating a near-term resolution window

Contracts:
- Will Meija Moreno be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: Meija Moreno — 10¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 52%)
- Will Levi Sebree be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: Levi Sebree — 36¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 48%)
- Will Amanda Batula be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: Amanda Batula — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will West Wilson be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: West Wilson — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Dara Levitan be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: Dara Levitan — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ben Waddell be cast in Summer House: Season 11?: Ben Waddell — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-22T02:20:53.103Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/summerhousecast
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Dara%20Levitan%20be%20cast%20in%20Summer%20House
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev