20% — Will there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Kalshi 19% · Polymarket 22% · 27 contracts · $106K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-08-09 20:49:03 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 3pp (Polymarket higher)

Why this matters:
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027?" 22¢; polymarket "Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?" 26¢; kalshi "Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027?" 9¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.

Key factors:
- Clarence Thomas retirement probability
- Long-term vacancy outlook
- Supreme Court stability

Contracts:
- What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027? — 22¢ Kalshi $31K (weight 29%)
- Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? — 26¢ Polymarket $19K (weight 18%)
- Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027? — 9¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 13%)
- Will Clarence Thomas announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027? — 16¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 9%)
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? — 7¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 9%)
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? — 76¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 8%)
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? — 16¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 5%)
- What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? — 2¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 4%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-03T06:41:11.817Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/supreme-court-vacancy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20a%20Supreme%20Court%20vacancy%20in%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev