15% — Will there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Kalshi 29% · Polymarket 4% · 14 contracts · $10.3M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 09:08:02 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 25pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
There is currently no market data indicating an expectation of a Supreme Court vacancy through resignation or retirement in 2026. The available prediction market activity is focused exclusively on upcoming 2026 judicial elections for state-level supreme courts in Washington, Ohio, and Texas rather than federal vacancies.

Key factors:
- No federal vacancy contracts
- Washington state judicial elections
- Ohio state judicial elections
- Texas state judicial elections

Contracts:
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Donald Trump — 2¢ Polymarket $5.2M (weight 50%)
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: UNRWA — 4¢ Polymarket $2.1M (weight 20%)
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Xi Jinping — 0¢ Polymarket $1.5M (weight 15%)
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: Greta Thunberg — 1¢ Polymarket $1.5M (weight 14%)
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? — 16¢ Kalshi $56K (weight 1%)
- Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? — 17¢ Polymarket $21K (weight 0%)
- Will Kristen Hawkins win the 2026 Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 7 election? — 15¢ Kalshi $189 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the 2026 Ohio Supreme Court election for the full term commencing January 2, 2027? — 43¢ Kalshi $122 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T06:44:58.927Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/supreme-court-vacancy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20a%20Supreme%20Court%20vacancy%20in%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev