37% — Will there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Polymarket 37% · 1 contracts · $7 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:12 UTC

Why this matters:
Prediction markets currently estimate a 37% chance of a Supreme Court vacancy occurring in 2026. While the odds of a new justice being confirmed by the end of the year are slightly higher at 45%, the potential for legal instability surrounding sitting justices remains a low-probability concern, with only a 10% chance priced in for a justice being charged with a federal crime before 2027.

Key factors:
- 37% vacancy probability
- 45% confirmation likelihood
- 10% justice criminal charge risk
- SCOTUS institutional stability

Contracts:
- Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? — 37¢ Polymarket $7 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.777Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/supreme-court-vacancy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20a%20Supreme%20Court%20vacancy%20in%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev